The Great Game
For the centuries following the fall of the greatest empire the world seen Kings, Tsars and despots have continued to do battle inCentral Asia for control of what seems an un-winabal prize. That of India. The Himalayan mountains provide a great protectorate for the sub-continent. After the fall of the Khanate empire Russia was determined to build a route the Indian Ocean through Afganistan. The British built their Empire on their navy’s strength and their control of the subcontinent. China, the closest neighbour, has even recently suggested they could wash India into the sea by having a billion or so people piss down the Indian side of the mountains.
While Russia and England competed to create their empires, the Chinese retreated behind their Great Wall and mountain passes to the south west. Trading with Britain, even ceding land to them but never giving in to the empire building of the Europeans.
England developed their Empire on the Crown Jewel of India. Russia grew out of the ashes of the fallen Khanates to to grow south through the ‘Stans’ but have been historically stymied in Afghanistan. The latest of the Russian Empires, the USSR falling due to the loses from its adventure into Afghanistan in the 1980’s.
The world wars saw the end of the British Empire and the rise of the United States as the supreme western power. The new century has seen the rise of Imperial China. India has become the most populous nation and is working toward growing a middle class. The Great Game was the term coined for the battle for the sub-continent between Britain and Russia. It still goes on, only the players and the field are now changed.
Russia has always considered itself a great player in the game. Before the folly of Afghanistan the USSR was the third largest country by population with by far the largest land mass. China was first in population and third in size. India second in population and well down the list on size being half the size of Australia. Today India has the largest population but with just over a third of the landmass that China at number two in population has. Russia is still far and away the largest country by land mass. Their population is now half of what it was at the height of its Soviet Empire.
What’s the point you may ask, as I am kind of wondering with my historical meandering here. Well, that empire building and shifting power alignments are the only constancy of history it seems. The rise of empirical plans seem dangerous, as do the fall of empires. That last grasp at relevance. Which is what we are seeing today. The continued fall of the Russian Empirical plan, the plateauing of Chinese Imperial dreams, the rising of Brazil as a power, the ascendancy of India and a return to the dominate position it has held for the past century of the American led west.
Putin, who at various times is said to be dying, whose country he leads is once again close to bankruptcy is making war on Ukraine in a last gasp at relevancy. Russia has always been a natural enemy of China but today they are cozying up so Putin has the financial resources available to execute his Ukraine strategy. Oil and Gas are the commodities of Russia keeping it afloat but long term the Chinese are moving toward electrification of their economy, oil will be out except as a manufacturing product. How much gas China will want to drive their electricity infrastructure is a big question.
Brazil is clearly on the ascendancy. Significant oil and gas reserves and a growing population that can feed itself and others with a land mass large enough to support many more make Brazil the country in the western hemisphere most likely to challenge the United States for hegemony on the Americas. They have a growing military/industrial base and have moved into the sphere of China.
As India continues to grow its middle class while at the same time growing its population a question becomes where can it go. Its rapid development of an industrial base both in base materials and finished goods along with financial and IT services provides all the modern necessities to become a world power. Leveraging the oil and gas of Russia will only strengthen its economy while at the same time giving Russia capital and possibly helping it achieve that great game strategy of influence over India.
What about China, the United States put China on its current course as a counter to the USSR. With that issue resolved and the old Soviet empire reduced to its component parts can China rise beyond its historical role as a regional power and become the true world power the past few regimes have been building toward. A strong manufacturing base, developing intellectual base and military capacity all point to a dominate future. An inability to continue the growth of the middle class will be the biggest question for Chinese leadership. Dominance in electrification and AI may be the winning formula. Although with AI how do you keep everyone employed?
The west led by the United States is under constant siege. Following the Second World War the USSR rose to challenge the west, and failed. The climate crazies have followed from the Soviets as a way to break the west as is the latest round of attacks by Islam. Russian advances into Ukraine and potential Chinese attacks on Formosa are the results of the Western struggle for identity.
Ultimately the west will win out I think as the one factor we have that the competing countries do not have is an understanding of liberty. A free people will always fight to maintain that freedom. Well eventually anyway. Will Russia move to the sphere of China or India? Will Brazil become the hegemonic state of the Americas. Will Islam crush Christianity and Judaism? Can either China or India appease its growing middle class. And what of the largest continent? Africa has not even been mentioned in this mix. Where will it fit into the Great Game of the future?